Is it Possible that Everyone’s QB Big Boards Get Things Backwards?

While much analysis has focused on how well NFL teams perform in the draft, there appears to be a lack of work evaluating the accuracy of non-NFL quarterback experts’ assessments of prospects. This is particularly noteworthy because post-draft evaluations often use the general consensus as a reference point to gauge the value of draft selections

BUSted 2: New Stat Goofin’

This post builds off the BUS dataset in the first post, but better leverages the week-by-week nature of BUS to ask questions that can’t be addressed with season-long aggregated measures of health. It’s time to goof around with this new stat. How much does putting guys on ice at the end of the season impact

BUSted: NFL Injuries in the 2022 Season

If you’ve been on NFL Twitter in 2022 you’ve almost certainly come across Banged Up Score (BUS) Rankings. It is put out by Fox NFL each week and describes how injured teams are (100 = healthy, 0 = everyone dead). This metric is new, it’s not very transparent (I’m not quite sure how it’s derived),

PIMP My Stats – Part 2: Which QBs got lucky?

In the first post, I laid out a methodology for PIMPing which combines a QBs actual EPA/play and using PFF charting data, throws into a blender and runs 1000 probabilistic versions of each QB season. This model yielded: Luck neutralized version of seasons based on the average EPA/play of those 1000 seasons. This average is

PIMP My Stats: Using Probabilistic Simulations to Understand the Impact of Luck on Passing Efficiency – Part 1

Whenever we watch an NFL game we see little mismatches between what the QB did and what the actual result of the play was. A QB throws drops a dime right into his receiver’s hands, but he drops it. That same QB might throw the ball right to a linebacker, but he also drops it.

Could the 2022 AFCW be the best QB division in NFL history?

The level of QBing in the AFC West has been a constant talking point this offseason. Bill Barnwell recently made a couple arguments for it being potentially the best QB division ever. Here I wanted to do the same kind of evaluation using EPA/play which is in someways the ultimate descriptor of QB play. The

Justin Herbert’s Kryptonite: The Easy Stuff

Through two seasons Justin Herbert has a clear weakness that makes it so that fully 1/4th of the time in an apples-to-apples comparison Herbert is worse than Mitch Trubisky, hardly better than Sam Darnold. The way that weakness manifests itself, however, suggests that Herbert has a relatively straightforward path to elevating his game to an

Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Lombardi: Part 2(nd down)

Last week I posted about Lombardi and gave some stats that made Joe Lombardi look like a genius and some that made him seem completely clueless. Here I’ve got two more breakdowns about how he handles specific 2nd down situations that aren’t necessarily good or bad but more just descriptive. The Chargers are one of

Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Lombardi

This practically doesn’t need an intro. After starting out 4-1 and then losing 3 of the 4, each with the offense shitting the bed in losses, Chargers fans are talking a lot about Joe Lombardi. I wanted to see what the numbers say about the job he’s doing. There’s some obvious good he’s doing and

Who is the Analytically-based Midseason MVP?

Designating a midseason MVP is kind of lame, whats the point? There’s still 10 weeks to go. Well I decided to do it for two reasons. What We Do in the Shadows Season 3 is over and I need something to do to fill that void in my life. I thought it might be fun